StepStone Infrastructure and Real Assets 1H25 House Views

We are pleased to present our 1H2025 House Views on the state of the infrastructure market.

Our House Views are developed using a combination of top-down macroeconomic analysis and bottom-up insights drawn from the expertise of our 75+ infrastructure professionals, who collectively manage $103 billion in capital.

Our goal is to offer our clients sharp, actionable perspectives on the market.

Evolving considerations

Big picture: The Trump Administration’s energy and tariff policies are potentially the most material near-term direct impact on US infrastructure. European and Asian countries must balance the economic impact of a potential trade war with renewed security priorities and other strategic goals.

• Impact of Trump 2.0: Tariff policies are generating economic uncertainty as businesses and investors assess their implications.
  • Tax cuts may offset some of the negative impacts on US companies.
• Government balance sheets: Higher defense spending in the EU and Asia could drive higher borrowing levels, potentially crowding out funding for other investments.
  • Private capital will be vital to support climate goals amid tighter public budgets.
• Macro conditions: Real GDP growth exceeded expectations in 2024, but recession risks loom in 2025 with the backdrop of a potential trade war.
  • The US appears to have achieved a soft landing post the 2022-2023 increase in interest rates.
  • However, tariffs may lead to a rise in inflation, but not a return to 2022 levels.